Yes, the unlikely did happen and “Sex and the City” did take the top spot for weekend box office away from Indiana Jones … barely. While the Sarah Jessica Parker-headlined chick flick opened to a $27 million Friday, the film suffered from poor word-of-mouth and actually lost momentum as the weekend wore on. The final three-day tally for “Sex and the City” was only $55.7 million, about $20 million less that many industry analysts predicted after Friday’s big opening. However, since the film only cost New Line $65 million to make, the blogosphere and media press are still puffing it up as a huge win, with rumors of a sequel already in the planning.
My advice to film investors? Hide your wallets; the AbFab Four are certain to demand higher paydays for a second outing on the silver screen, so take a careful look at the business dynamics of the weekend before pouring $80 to $120 million into a sequel. Yes, the film had a fun Friday, but Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull gained momentum over the course of the weekend, beating Sex’s declining take on both Saturday and Sunday.
In fact, Harrison Ford and company posted a very impressive $46 million in its second week of release, bringing its domestic take to $216 million, $363 million when worldwide box office is added in. That’s in contrast to Sex, which thus far has done no business outside of the US.
Perhaps the biggest shocker of the weekend, however, is that Rogue Pictures’ slasher movie, The Strangers, took in $20.7 million in its opening weekend to bump Iron Man out of the third spot. Crafty casting may explain the surge in business for this Hostel-clone movie, as fans began to realize that, yes, that is Liv Tyler in the film, as well as former Felicity heartthrob Scott Speedman as the couple cornered by sadistic killers in a remote cabin.
The Strangers, which only cost $9 million to make, is already well into profit mode, even if business dries up next weekend. I’d venture to say that Tyler proved her box office drawing power by pushing a low-budget slasher/torture flick to over $20 million, than did Sarah Jessica Parker with her start-strong-and-fizzle-fast performance in Sex and the City. Tyler should be able to use the performance of The Strangers to draw a bigger payday in whatever she does next.
Iron Man stayed steady at fourth place, with $14 million, ahead of fifth-place Prince Caspian, which drew $13 million. Iron Man has done $276 million to date domestically, $505 million worldwide. Prince Caspian has made $115 domestically and $166 worldwide, but may need to wait until DVD/BluRay release to make its $200 million production budget back. Business is off considerably for Prince Caspian, as the first film in the series, Narnia, made $291 million at the box office, while this one will come nowhere near that cume.
The main difference seems to be that Narnia benefitted from the softer winter holiday season, whereas Prince Caspian was unleashed in the far-more-competitive summer season. The results of this downturn may cause Walden Media to scale down the $200 million budget for the third film, Voyage of the Dawn Treader, currently scheduled for another May release, in 2010; at the very least, the company may want to movie the third film back into the winter holiday season.
The rest of the Top 10 was as boring as a diet pill review, with nothing breaking the $10 million mark and some films not even making $1 million near the bottom of the roundup.
Next weekend is counter-programming to Iron Man and Indy, once again, but could also erode Sex and the City’s business as well; the Jack Black-voiced toon, Kung Fu Panda, makes its initial bow, along with the family-friendly Adam Sandler comedy, You Don’t Mess With the Zohan.
The weekend of June 13 will be the next big poke at adrenaline-fueled, testorerone-focused fare as both The Incredible Hulk and M. Night Shyamalan’s The Happening are strongly anticipated reviews, though expectations for the Hulk flick are muted due to both the original film’s critical failure, as well as Iron Man’s staying power.
If the second Hulk film flops, it’s likely a long timeout for the Jade Giant before he returns to the big screen again; in the meantime, most diehard comic book movie fans are setting their sights on the July 18 debut of The Dark Knight, the follow-up to the highly successful Batman relaunch, Batman Begins.
