Will the Screen Actors Guild strike, or won’t they? That’s the question that has Hollywood on edge as June winds to a close and SAG’s contract looked set to expire without a resolution. Of course, the way they’re handling it is likely to raise the life insurance rates of everyone in Hollywood with a heart condition: rather than sitting down to the negotiating table with AMPTP, SAG is instead trying to interfere with the ratification of AFTRA’s agreement with AMPTP, so that neither actor’s labor union has a labor agreement.

Way to make progress, guys; push everyone back to square one? Real professional there.

AFTRA’s agreement needs 75 percent of members voting in favor to pass, and despite SAG’s derailment efforts, it is expected to pass on July 7, when the results of the ratification vote are announced by AFTRA.

Meanwhile, SAG has not yet asked its members for ratification to strike on July 1, but whether they strike or not, labor peace seems a long way off at this point in time, and the return of Hollywood’s prime time schedule may be delayed even longer if SAG does strike.

The entertainment industry lost billions due to the 100-day WGA strike last fall and winter and TV ratings have been depressed ever since, even after original programming returned to prime time. If the fall lineup is delayed further by an actors strike this summer, it could take until 2010 for networks to regain the audience mindshare lost by two consecutive seasons interrupted by labor strife.

The IQ of the US box office has risen to Steve Carell levels; the comic actor’s tribute to the 1965 Don Adams spy comedy, “Get Smart,” ruled at the box office this weekend, drawing in an estimated $39.1 million. Adams, who died on September 27, 2005, revised his role for the first silver-screen adaptation of the classic TV series in 1980, The Nude Bomb, but the movie was a critical and box office failure. The Carell version has been panned by critics, but with a nearly $40M weekend, it seems America doesn’t care what the critics say; they like Carell.

The whole Ademco link to Carell’s career might eventually become complete if Carell ever hosts a TV reality show that allows middle Americans to audition for a chance to get their big break in Hollywood; Don Adams had minor success with that concept on CBS in the early 1970s with “Don Adams’ Screen Test” and given the current trend of reality programming, bringing the concept back with Carell as host might not be an altogether bad idea. Only, of course, once Carell’s career cools down, which at the moment it shows no signs of doing.

Elsewhere on the weekend box office results, Kung Fu Panda ($21.7 million) eked out a narrow victory for second place behind Incredible Hulk ($21.5 million), which easily took third. Hulk raked in an extra $30 million from foreign box office so far, to bring its total to date to $127 million.

Mike Myers’ The Love Guru bombed out of the gate with a weak $14 million showing, although its light, $62 million production budget helps alleviate some of the disappointment; the movie seems to suffer mostly from Myers’ long absence from the silver screen, which led to him seeming more like “yesterday’s news” than “the hot, happening comic of the moment.” Rock on, Steve Carell.

M. Night Shyamalan’s The Happening held tight to the last spot in the top five, with a $10 million weekend. So far the film has grossed $50.2 million domestically and $31.5 overseas, for a tidy $81.7 million gross against a $62 million budget, putting the film into the black in only its second week of release.

The rest of the “million or more” club goes like this: sixth place, Indiana Jones, $8.4 million; seventh place, You Don’t Mess With the Zohan, $7.2 million (which has been weak overseas as well, grossing only $4.5 million so far, for a total of $88 million combined, against a $90 million production budget); eighth place, Sex and the City, $6.4 million; ninth place, Iron Man, $4 million; tenth place, The Strangers, $1.9 million and eleventh place, Prince Caspian, $1.7 million.