Will SAG strike, or won’t they?

Will the Screen Actors Guild strike, or won’t they? That’s the question that has Hollywood on edge as June winds to a close and SAG’s contract looked set to expire without a resolution. Of course, the way they’re handling it is likely to raise the life insurance rates of everyone in Hollywood with a heart condition: rather than sitting down to the negotiating table with AMPTP, SAG is instead trying to interfere with the ratification of AFTRA’s agreement with AMPTP, so that neither actor’s labor union has a labor agreement.

Way to make progress, guys; push everyone back to square one? Real professional there.

AFTRA’s agreement needs 75 percent of members voting in favor to pass, and despite SAG’s derailment efforts, it is expected to pass on July 7, when the results of the ratification vote are announced by AFTRA.

Meanwhile, SAG has not yet asked its members for ratification to strike on July 1, but whether they strike or not, labor peace seems a long way off at this point in time, and the return of Hollywood’s prime time schedule may be delayed even longer if SAG does strike.

The entertainment industry lost billions due to the 100-day WGA strike last fall and winter and TV ratings have been depressed ever since, even after original programming returned to prime time. If the fall lineup is delayed further by an actors strike this summer, it could take until 2010 for networks to regain the audience mindshare lost by two consecutive seasons interrupted by labor strife.