Simon Cowell may leave American Idol after this season; that’s the word from his brother on Twitter. But we suspect Cowell is just using his desire to leave the show as a negotiating position, as he has before when his contract has come up for renewal.

So is Simon going into RV repair? Not on your life; he wants to bring over his latest show, X-Factor, from Great Britain to the US. However, since Fox is the most interested buyer at the moment, don’t be surprised if they link purchase of X-Factor to a condition of Cowell remaining on Idol in some form.

It’s been a bumpy ride for Idol the past few months. First, Paula Abdul’s contract is not renewed; then, Fox chooses the worst possible replacement – a stand-up comic and talk show host with no musical background, Ellen DeGeneres – to take Abdul’s place.

Now no Simon?

The old adage stands true; don’t mess with success! Unfortunately, that’s exactly what Fox is doing…

While netbooks are all the rage right now, even a small screen won’t make this look good: American Idol has selected, to replace Paula Abdul as a permanent judge on the show: talk show host and stand-up comic Ellen DeGeneres.

Really? Unfortunately, yes, really…

If DeGeneres were being selected as a judge for NBC’s Last Comic Standing, that would make perfect sense to me. She’s a former stand-up herself and while she may not be the funniest stand-up ever, she certainly knows what funny is, and what it takes to make a stand-up comic great.

Trouble is, DeGeneres is not a singer, not a musician, not a former band member… she’s just NOT a music person. So what qualifies her at all to judge aspiring singers? Nothing. The choice is entirely based on her celebrity status and, given the straight vs. gay upset result in last season’s AI finale, probably a political decision as well.

Hey, there are plenty of gay and lesbian singers out there who have real music backgrounds; want to make up for last season’s finale? There’s plenty of choices out there who would be a better fit than Ellen DeGeneres.

Again, if this were Last Comic Standing, I’d love to see DeGeneres as part of the judges’ panel. But it’s not. It’s American Idol; it’s about singing and music, and as a judge for THAT, DeGeneres is shockingly under-qualified.

It’s time to be honest here, and I’m talking colon cleanser-honest: Paula Abdul was definitely the weak link in the American Idol judges panel, and her departure, while a shock to some, was a long time in coming and definitely an improvement. While US audiences seemed to like the soft, non-judgmental approach of Abdul, the truth is her “support everyone” approach weakened the show.

Plus, with some of the celebrity guest judges Fox is lining up, I seriously doubt anyone will still be whining for Paula’s return once the season is underway. Here’s a list of confirmed guest judges so far: Avril Lavigne, Katy Perry, Victoria Beckham, Mary J. Blige, Neal Patrick Harris, Joe Jonas and Kristen Chenowith.

The list is expected to grow from there. The regular judges for the new season of American Idol remain Simon Cowell, Randy Jackson and the far-more-honest-and-discerning Kara DioGuardi, who debuted last season.

It’s time for some year-in-review type stuff. And while I know some of my readers are just waiting for me to go Phase I environmental all over the place, I’d rather focus on my favorite shows in different genres, thank you very much.

3. Survivor (CBS)

Yes, the show is getting older now, but Survivor is still great TV. With the novelty worn off, the zing now rests completely on the contestants. Getting the show out of the repetitive South Sea island locales and moved to someplace new was a smart decision to change up the look of the show. And last spring’s race-themed opening to the season turned out better than most folks expected, reinforcing the show’s theme that such things ultimately don’t matter in a game like Survivor.

2. American Idol (FOX)

Another old standby, I still look forward to the audition episodes and the Final Five quite a bit. Most of the episodes in the middle are “take ‘em or leave ‘em” affairs, though.

1. Kitchen Nightmares (FOX)

A new entry on this side of the pond, Chef Gordon Ramsey has delivered a bigger hit than his other Fox reality program, Hell’s Kitchen. Though it’s a bit of ritual, watching Ramsey turn around restaurants on the brink of closure – and serious health code violations – is surprisingly entertaining.

Reality show host Ryan Seacrest will get his shot at hosting the Emmy Awards this year. His gig comes in the wake of Conan O’Brien’s hosting job, which was expected to be brilliant but fizzled miserably.

Known as the master of the timely commercial break, Seacrest emerged into national consciousness when he became the host of American Idol, the Simon Cowell-created music talent competition. Seacrest bloomed in the limelight created by the runaway reality TV hit largely because he was already an experience radio broadcaster familiar with the music business.

It’s impossible to say whether Seacrest can come across as well as Billy Crystal does at the Oscars, but if he does, it could open up yet another broadcasting gig for the effusive workaholic. Look for him in front of the crystal sets and tablecloth sea. He’ll be the one wearing the most genuine smile in the room.

The Fox Network used to be the butt of jokes like this: “If someone offered the major networks a chance to broadcast live executions, the only one who’d turn down the opportunity is Fox. They would insist on live, nude executions.”

Yet the same ‘Net bigwigs making those jokes aren’t laughing anymore … and probably haven’t been for a long time. But the power of Fox was made crystal clear this week when it posted its first big win with a powerhouse lineup.

Sunday and Monday’s four-hour, two-night premiere of 24 blew away everything but The Golden Globes, and the Tuesday-Wednesday four-hour, two-night debut of American Idol will prove to be the top two shows of the week, posting an increasingly rare 20.2 rating and a 30 share, according to ratings reports released by Nielsen Media Research.

The 24-American Idol 1-2 punch has never been more potent and is a real metabolism booster for Fox, which did OK last fall with House and Prison Break leading the way; but there’s nothing that quite measures up to Bauer power and Simon making bad singers cry by telling them the truth.

Yet even as audiences grow smaller and smaller for the other big networks … whose ratings varied from a 7.1 (CBS) down to a 2.1 (The CW) … Hollywood grows more and more hostile to something that works.

Sure, Simon’s rudely honest with people. But the show is definitely family viewing. Even 24 can’t lay claim to that, and AI’s ratings are significantly bigger than even 24′s. Yet the networks continue not to get the message and idiotically despise AI while continuing to dish out shows that are anything but family viewing.

And they wonder why they can’t pull in the 30.0 rating that MASH did in the 70s and 80s anymore. It’s not just that cable and satellite bring people more choices, folks… it’s that people no longer like most of the choices the networks dish up anymore, so naturally they’re gonna splinter off and watch Bill O’Reilly, Mythbusters and whatever’s on the History Channel or Animal Planet instead.